Executive Search in Japan

Salary Shock: Why Employers in Japan Are Paying More Than Ever

• Chase Huntley • Season 1 • Episode 5

🎙️Welcome back to Executive Search in Japan.

In 2025, Japan is experiencing its most dramatic shift in compensation dynamics in over three decades. Wage growth is breaking records—yet real wages continue to fall, creating a paradox for both employees and employers. Amid inflation, an aging workforce, and structural labor shortages, companies are fundamentally rethinking how they compete for—and retain—top talent.

In this episode, we unpack the economic forces, wage trends, and strategic responses defining Japan’s “new normal” in compensation.

🔍 Topics Covered:

  • Japan’s Wage Surge in 2025: Average base salary increases above 5%, summer bonuses at all-time highs, and SMEs narrowing the gap with large enterprises.
  • The Purchasing Power Paradox: Why real wages are declining despite historic nominal growth—and how this affects consumption and employee sentiment.
  • Sector-Specific Winners: Which industries are seeing the fastest wage growth, and what roles are commanding the highest premiums in Tokyo.
  • Strategic Retention Measures: How employers are going beyond salary—using bonuses, hybrid work, career mobility, and training investments to hold on to talent.
  • Multinationals vs. Domestic Firms: Why global companies are rethinking compensation as Japanese firms raise the bar.
  • Salary Negotiation Culture in Japan: What’s changing in how—and when—employees ask for raises, and the growing trend of changing jobs to boost pay.
  • Outlook for 2026 and Beyond: Will wage growth continue? And what does this mean for executive search and talent strategy?

Japan’s labor market is in the midst of a structural reset. Tune in as we explore what it means for companies, candidates, and the future of compensation.

Speaker 01:

Welcome to the Deep Dive, your shortcut to being well-informed, packed with surprising facts and just enough humor to keep you hooked. Now, for decades, Japan's been This is kind of an enigma, right? Stagnant wages, fighting deflation. It just seemed to defy global economic gravity. But now, in 2025, something really unprecedented seems to be happening. We're talking about a pretty seismic shift in salaries. So today, we're taking a close look at what's genuinely driving this remarkable change. It seems to be everything from persistent inflation reshaping daily life to this intense war for talent that's completely rewriting the rulebook for employers. The big question we're diving into is, Is this just a temporary blip, or are we seeing the dawn of a fundamentally new economic Japan? And crucially, what does it actually mean for your career path, whether you're already there or maybe considering opportunities soon? For this deep dive, we've pulled insights from the latest salary guides, market analyses, economic reports. All looking specifically at 2025.

Speaker 02:

Our mission, really, is to give you a clear, concise understanding of this new landscape, hopefully helping you navigate it with a bit more confidence. So let's break this down. Japan is, it seems, fundamentally That's

Speaker 00:

absolutely right. I mean, for years, Japan struggled with falling prices, which was a pretty unique challenge globally. But now core consumer inflation is hovering around 3.7 percent.

Speaker 02:

3.7 percent.

Speaker 00:

Yeah. And just for context, the Bank of Japan's own forecasts for this fiscal year, 2025, they put the consumer price index increase somewhere between 2.5 percent and 3.0 percent. This is a really big increase. I mean, frankly, a dramatic change for a country that until very recently was much more worried about prices falling than rising.

Speaker 02:

And this isn't just numbers on a chart, is it? This is where it gets really interesting for people's daily lives, because these rising costs are tangibly affecting, well, everyone across Japan. You know, anyone who's lived there knows the idea of staple goods getting more expensive is quite a shift. We're talking everyday essentials, fresh food, utilities, even public transport, rice prices, for example. They've seen their highest gain in over 50 years.

Speaker 00:

Wow, it's significant.

Speaker 02:

In the Kanto region, that's Tokyo and surrounds, the average monthly household spend is around $265,914. And those costs are only going up. So yeah, wages are increasing. But the question is, are people actually feeling richer? Or is inflation just eating away at those gains?

Speaker 00:

That's exactly it, that purchasing power paradox you touched on. It's a critical tension right now. And this pressure, it's definitely forced the Bank of Japan to act. In what was really a significant move, the BOJ raised its short-term policy interest rate to 0.5% back in January 2025. 0.5%.

Speaker 02:

Doesn't sound like much globally, but for Japan.

Speaker 00:

Exactly. It might seem minuscule compared to rates elsewhere, but for Japan, which has had near zero or even negative rates for decades, This marks a truly monumental shift. It's a definitive end to those ultra-loose monetary measures. And there's this crucial feedback loop here. The strong wage hikes we saw in last year's Shinto and continuing in 2025, they directly justify the BOJ's tightening. It sort of signals to the market that maybe, just maybe, this new inflationary environment could actually be sustainable.

Speaker 02:

And it's not just the central bank, right? The government seems to be pushing this too. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration has been quite vocal, pushing for wage increases. They've set this pretty ambitious goal, raise the national average minimum wage to $8,500 by the end of 2029. Which

Speaker 00:

is a big jump. That requires an average annual increase of about 7.3%. Yeah.

Speaker 02:

And they've even introduced that $20,000 cash handout per adult, trying to ease the immediate burden of rising prices. It really feels like a coordinated effort to get wages moving.

Speaker 00:

And it seems to be working, looking at the results.

Speaker 02:

Right. Which brings us to the annual spring wage negotiations, the Shunto. For 2025, these results seem to represent a truly monumental shift, something many people thought just wouldn't happen in Japan.

Speaker 00:

Indeed, the final average wage hike, according to the Rengo Labor Union Federation, reached 5.25 percent.

Speaker 02:

5.2.

Speaker 00:

And for companies surveyed by the Japan Business Federation, Kaidanrin, it was even a bit higher, 5.39 percent. Now, to put this in perspective, this is the highest level we've seen since the early 1990s. And significantly, it's the first time the 5% mark has been surpassed for two consecutive years.

Speaker 02:

After two decades of near stagnation.

Speaker 00:

Exactly. Following two decades where wage growth often hovered around maybe 1-2%, if that. So it's a genuine breakthrough.

Speaker 02:

And it's not just these aggregate numbers either. We're seeing some really big companies leading the charge. Hitachi, for instance, agreed to a record 6.2% increase in base monthly pay for 2025 Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker, gave hefty raises two years running. 2024 was their biggest since 99, and 2025 apparently matched that high level. Even their major supplier, Denso, followed suit.

Speaker 00:

That's important, the supply chain effect.

Speaker 02:

Yeah. And then there's fast retailing, you know, Unicol's parent company. They stunned everyone back in early 2023 by boosting salaries by up to 40%.

Speaker 00:

That was huge news.

Speaker 02:

Yeah, new grads saw about 18% higher starting pay. Some store managers got raises around 36%. And they explicitly said they were doing it to aim for global competitiveness.

Unknown:

Hmm.

Speaker 02:

It's impressive seeing these giants lead, but are these top-tier increases really reflective of what the average worker is experiencing? Is there a big gap?

Speaker 00:

That's a really good question. And what's fascinating here is that this wage momentum isn't just confined to the giants. Small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, they also saw a significant gain, 4.65%. Now, that's the largest increase for that group in 33 years.

Speaker 02:

33 years. Wow. Yeah.

Speaker 00:

And this is incredibly important because nearly 70% of Japan's employees work for SMEs. So their wage increases are absolutely crucial for these national trends to be truly sustainable and broadly impactful. So while the big players lead, the SMEs are following, which is really key.

Speaker 02:

And that government push on the minimum wage you mentioned earlier, that's also had historic results. The Central Minimum Wages Council recommended a 6% increase, about 63 yen, raising the national hourly minimum wage to 11,118. It was 1,055 before.

Speaker 00:

Just over 1,100 yen an hour now.

Speaker 02:

Right. Largest hike ever in Japan, apparently. And it means the minimum wage will likely finally surpass 1,000 in all prefectures for the first time.

Speaker 00:

That's a milestone. Definitely.

Speaker 02:

And in a notable effort to narrow those regional wage gaps, the C-ranked prefectures, the economically weaker ones, they actually got a slightly higher recommended increase, 64 yen, for the first time. It really shows a concerted effort to lift all boats.

Speaker 00:

Yeah, it seems quite targeted.

Speaker 02:

So, okay, beyond inflation and government policy, there's another huge piece to this puzzle, isn't there? Japan's really acute labor shortage in this resulting war for talent.

Speaker 00:

Absolutely. And this isn't just talk. We have solid data on this crisis. The Bank of Japan's tank and survey from Q2 2025 showed its employment diffusion index fell to negative 35. That's across all industries.

Speaker 02:

Minus 35. What does that actually mean?

Speaker 00:

It means far more companies are reporting a severe shortage of workers than those who feel they have a surplus. It's one of the lowest points in about three decades. And to give you a specific example, look at the information services industry. Nearly 70 percent of companies in that sector are reporting a shortage of regular workers. The talent pool is just shrinking.

Speaker 02:

So bringing this all back to, you know, someone listening, maybe thinking about their career. What does this actually mean on the ground? This talent scarcity It seems like it's fundamentally shifted the bargaining power towards employees, right? Retention must be top priority now.

Speaker 00:

Definitely. Companies are implementing targeted raises, especially for those mid-level and associate level employees. That's where the shortages are most acute. Something like 40, 45 percent of firms report vacancies in those specific roles.

Speaker 02:

So they're trying to lock down that core group.

Speaker 00:

Exactly. They're actively trying to keep their core young and mid-career employees from jumping ship because they know they're hard to replace. And it's not just about the base salary anymore. Companies are moving beyond just that annual raise. We saw record setting summer bonuses in twenty twenty five, averaging nine hundred and seventy four thousand. That's like a second significant financial adjustment in the year.

Speaker 02:

Almost a million yen bonus on average.

Speaker 00:

Yeah. pretty substantial. And beyond money, they're also focusing hard on non-monetary retention strategies, things like embracing hybrid work models, investing more in training and support systems, trying to build strong corporate cultures with clear career progression paths. It's becoming much more of a full package deal.

Speaker 02:

And it's also worth noting these huge variations between sectors, isn't it? The information and communications sector, you mentioned tech, led the way with an 8.24 percent average increase.

Speaker 00:

That

Speaker 02:

really reflects the intense competition for talent in those high demand fields. AI software services, cybersecurity, robotics, fields that McKinsey forecasts will contribute significantly to global GDP by 2040. So I guess if you're in one of those fields, your bargaining power is even stronger.

Speaker 00:

MELANIE WARRICK- Much stronger. And if we connect this to the bigger picture, these kinds of sectoral differences, they really signal an erosion of that traditional seniority-based pay system, the nemkujiretsu. MARK MIRCHANDANI-

Speaker 02:

Right, pay based on age and years of service.

Speaker 00:

MELANIE WARRICK- Exactly. And this isn't just a tweak in pay structure. It's a pretty profound challenge to Japan's traditional ideas about corporate loyalty and lifelong careers. In its place, we're seeing this shift towards a more merit-based, skill-driven compensation model. And this evolution, frankly, is essential if Japan wants to compete for global talent and foster a more dynamic, performance-driven workforce. It signals a new era where maybe job hopping for higher pay, which used to be really frowned upon, is becoming a much more accepted, even strategic move.

Speaker 02:

MARK MIRCHANDANI Okay, so given these huge shifts at the macro level, what does this actually mean for you, the listener, navigating Japan's job market right now? How can you strategically leverage these changes, whether you're, say, looking for a raise in your current role or maybe maybe exploring new opportunities?

Speaker 00:

Well, first, I think it's key to understand that the compensation frameworks themselves are evolving. While those traditional seniority-based raises still exist, the dominant trend now adopted by over 70% of Japanese companies apparently is towards performance-based and skill-based systems, which means your individual contributions, your specific skills, they're increasingly important in determining your pay, much more so than maybe 10, 20 years ago.

Speaker 02:

Okay, let's drill down then. How do you strategically approach asking for a raise within a Japanese company, because that can feel daunting. First up, timing seems critical. When's the right moment?

Speaker 00:

Yeah, timing is key. The best time is usually during your company's formal evaluation period. That often falls around February, March, or maybe August, September. Okay. Or, alternatively, right after you've had a major achievement, completed a big project successfully, definitely avoid bringing it up too soon after joining, or like during the busiest crunch time of the year. Right,

Speaker 02:

read the room. Okay, second point. Prepare your case and make it data-driven.

Speaker 00:

Absolutely crucial, especially in Japan. Preparation often counts for more than just boldness. You need to show clear evidence of your contributions. Think project outcomes, quantifiable results. How did your work improve things? Did it save time? Boost revenue? Cut costs? Also, include any new certifications or skills you've picked up. And definitely use external salary benchmarks to support your request. It shows you've done your homework.

Speaker 02:

And maybe rehearse your points. Especially if you need to do it in Japanese.

Speaker 00:

Definitely recommend rehearsing, yes. Particularly the key phrases and justifications.

Speaker 02:

Okay, third. Know who to talk to. Follow the chain of command.

Speaker 00:

Yes, always. Start with your direct manager or maybe your team leader. That's usually the person who conducts your evaluation anyway. Don't try to bypass them and go straight to upper management or HR. That usually doesn't go over well.

Speaker 02:

Got it. Fourth point, framing the conversation professionally. This sounds really important in the Japanese context.

Speaker 00:

Extremely important. Humility and politeness are absolutely key. So instead of Making a demand. Try phrasing it more like, um, based on my recent contributions and performance, I was hoping we could discuss the possibility of a salary review. Something like that.

Speaker 02:

Softer approach.

Speaker 00:

Exactly. Maybe start by expressing gratitude for your current role and the opportunities you have and be genuinely open to feedback they might give you.

Speaker 02:

Okay. And finally, what if the answer is no? You need to prepare for that, too.

Speaker 00:

You absolutely do. Not every request will succeed, especially in more traditional Japanese companies where pay structures can still be quite rigid based on those seniority scales. If your request is turned down, the key is to stay professional. Don't get defensive or emotional.

Speaker 02:

Use it as an opportunity.

Speaker 00:

Yeah, exactly. Use it to plan your next steps. you could ask politely what you would need to achieve for a raise to be considered in the future, or perhaps ask if the discussion can be revisited in, say, six months. It's just worth remembering that in some very traditional workplaces, actively negotiating salary can still sometimes be viewed as a bit overly assertive. So tread carefully.

Speaker 02:

But that said, given the current market.

Speaker 00:

Right. Statistically speaking, changing jobs is often the most effective way to get a significant salary bump in Japan right now. The data shows around 40 percent of job changers received an increase and a pretty significant chunk, 13.8 percent, saw their pay jump by over 10 percent in 2024 alone.

Speaker 02:

10 percent or more just by moving.

Speaker 00:

Yeah. So it's often a quicker path to higher pay than trying to negotiate internally, especially if you're hitting a ceiling.

Speaker 02:

OK, so what about if you're looking at a new job offer? What are some negotiations Absolutely.

Speaker 00:

Negotiating isn't just about getting more money. It signals that you understand your value, you've done your research on the market, and you're serious about the opportunity. Frankly, most employers expect some level of negotiation now.

Speaker 02:

So tactically, when's the moment?

Speaker 00:

Best to wait until you have a formal written job offer in hand. Any discussions before that are really just about aligning general salary expectations, not the final negotiation.

Speaker 02:

Okay. And if they give you a salary range?

Speaker 00:

If they offer a range, you should generally aim for the higher end, but be prepared to justify it. Point to your specific experience, your skills, the value you expect to bring, maybe responsibilities that go beyond the standard job description.

Speaker 02:

Use that external data.

Speaker 00:

Definitely. Reference external salary data, like say the Robert Alter salary survey or similar reputable sources. It may makes your case much more credible than just saying I want more.

Speaker 02:

And how do you actually ask for more without sounding difficult?

Speaker 00:

Start by expressing genuine appreciation for the offer. Then clearly explain your reasoning for asking for a higher figure. Base it on your experience, the market rates you've researched, or perhaps specific responsibilities outlined in the role description.

Speaker 02:

How much more is reasonable to ask for? A

Speaker 00:

common guideline is maybe aiming for 5 to 10 percent more than the initial offer. Pushing for much more than that can sometimes backfire unless you have exceptionally strong justification.

Speaker 02:

And remember, it's not just about the base salary, right? Right. The whole package.

Speaker 00:

Crucial point. Salary is just one piece. Always consider the full compensation package. Look at bonuses. Are they guaranteed or performance-based? What's the holiday allowance? Are there flexible working arrangements? Training and development opportunities. Sometimes if an employer says the base salary is fixed, they might have flexibility on these other benefits instead. So always ask about the whole picture.

Speaker 02:

Good tip. And finally, what are the big mistakes to avoid during negotiation?

Speaker 00:

Number one. Don't accept the first offer too quickly, especially if you haven't had time to evaluate it properly. Give yourself time to think. Two, don't make it personal or emotional. Keep it focused on professional value and market rates. Three, avoid being vague. Be specific about the salary you're seeking and why. And finally, definitely don't be confrontational or issue ultimatums. The goal is a positive, collaborative start to your new role.

Speaker 02:

Right. OK, one more area to touch on. International firms in Japan, we often hear they pay more. But is that still true in this new environment?

Speaker 00:

It's become a bit more nuanced, actually. Historically, yes, foreign affiliated companies often paid a premium to attract talent compared to domestic firms. But that gap seems to be narrowing. Some recent studies even suggest that non-Japanese companies, on average, raised wages at a slightly lower rate during this current wage boom, perhaps because they're tied to global pay structures that didn't see the same pressures as Japan specifically. Oh, interesting. However, foreign firms are still generally more likely to be planning some form of pay increase across all employee levels compared to some domestic firms. And interestingly, some domestic firms are now actually outpacing foreign rivals in entry level pay, trying really hard to attract those new graduates in this tight market.

Speaker 02:

So it's shifting.

Speaker 00:

It is. But that said, in high So what a profound shift we've really seen unfold

Speaker 02:

here. Japan's entire employment culture seems to be fundamentally changing, doesn't it? Offering unprecedented bargaining power back to workers. After decades of being kind of stuck in that low wage deflationary cycle, 2025 has truly signaled, well, a new era, it seems.

Speaker 00:

It really has, though it is still a complex economic environment. As we discussed, while there are these significant nominal gains in wages, we're still grappling with that crisis. purchasing power paradox.

Speaker 02:

Right. The inflation eating into the raises.

Speaker 00:

Exactly. Those nominal gains aren't always keeping pace with the rising cost of living for everyone. And this raises a really important question for the future. How will this new wage driven economic model truly impact consumption? Will it lead to sustained real growth, not just nominal increases that get swallowed up by inflation? That's really the big challenge ahead for Japan.

Speaker 02:

Absolutely. And so perhaps we leave you, the listener, with this final provocative thought to mull over. What stands out most to you about this profound change in Japan's whole approach to wages? How might these shifts redefine not just salaries, but career paths, company loyalty, maybe even living standards in one of the world's most unique economies? Not just for 2025, but perhaps for the entire decade ahead.

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